Bundestag with about 1000 deputies: this is how it would be possible

A Bundestag with good 1000 deputies? Not an entirely improbable scenario after the upcoming Bundestag elections, given the calculations of electoral law expert Robert Vehrkamp. "The range of plausibly possible Bundestag sizes runs from about 650 to more than 1000. not be ruled out," the Bertelsmann Stiftung expert told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur in Berlin.

Vehrkamp is also part of the commission set up by the Bundestag to reform electoral law and modernize parliamentary work. A accurate prediction is not possible, however, according to his presentation.

Size of the Bundestag also depends on overhang mandates

"What is often overlooked in the discussion: It doesn't just come down to the Second vote result on," he explained. "At least as much depends on vote splitting how many overhang mandates there will be. And the splitting behavior is even more incalculable than the allocation of second votes."

The Greens, for example, could get twice as many second votes as in the 2017 election. "We do not know, however, how then the splitting behavior of the Green voters looks." In the event that 20 percent of them give the first vote to the CDU/CSU, for example, because of old ties, that would have "an enormous leverage effect," Vehrkamp said. "Then, depending on the scenario, you are quickly at 880, 950 or in extreme cases even over 1000 mandates. This does not have to happen, but it is possible. The current electoral law is a real vabanque with regard to the size of the Bundestag."

Calculations: Up to 978 deputies possible

Vehrkamp has from the ARD-"Germany trend" from 5. August (CDU/CSU: 27 percent, Greens: 19, SPD: 18, FDP: 12, AfD: 10, Left Party: 6) with three different splitting scenarios Calculating the size of the Bundestag. Depending on the constellation, it comes to 695, 851 or a whole 978 deputies.

On its working and political ability had the Size of the Bundestag will have an enormous impact, said election researcher. "A too large Bundestag worsens the quality of the political operation." This could even influence the formation of the government. "The larger the caucuses, the harder it could be to organize narrow majorities and keep them stable for the duration of the legislative session."

The Bundestag has Standard size of 598 mandates. Since the 2017 election, however, it has 709 deputies – more than ever before in its history.

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