Increase in corona numbers: where does this curve lead?

These are numbers that get under your skin: More than 22.400 Corona new infections within two days, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Berlin. This means that the previous record of last Friday – 7830 new infections within 24 hours – has been significantly exceeded twice. But there's more: the RKI reported 49 new deaths on Friday morning. As many as have been infected since 27. June no. As of Friday, that means 165 people had died with or from the virus in the current week.

The virus is spreading faster than expected. RKI President Lothar Wieler on Thursday urged the population to observe hygiene and distance rules. Other European countries are also seeing a surge in infections. Some, like the Czech Republic and Ireland, are switching to Lockdown.

Corona: How dramatic does the Robert Koch Institute assess the current situation?

RKI chief Lothar Wieler warns the situation in Germany is "very serious," he said Thursday. It must be expected that the virus spreads strongly and also "uncontrolled" in some regions. Case numbers have been rising "faster and faster" since early September. Also read: Demand for toilet paper is rising: Why hoarding doesn't pay, though

Wieler stressed, however, that there is a chance to slow down the outbreak: "We are not powerless." The crucial thing, he says, is that people adhere strictly to the Hygiene and distance rules and refrained from larger meetings.

 
Increase in corona numbers: where does this curve lead?

Which population groups are particularly affected?

Wieler says younger people are still more likely to be infected at present. There are therefore more minor illnesses. However, he said, the proportion of older. Also the number Covid-19-Patients in hospitals growing. Within two weeks, he said, the number of people being treated in intensive care units had doubled. It now amounts to 943. More Covid 19 deaths to be expected, he said.

According to Wieler, the increase can be traced to the Corona infections currently attributed primarily to contagions in the private sphere. It is about celebrations, meetings with friends or with the family. Schools, public transport, the workplace or hotel accommodation played a less important role in comparison.

How did Merkel arrive at 19.200 new infections per day by Christmas?

At the end of September, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) internally a figure that many at the time considered exaggerated. Aming an exponential increase, she spoke of 19.200 daily new infections by Christmas. In the meantime, this model calculation has even been overtaken by reality.

Merkel had the Doubling times based on the number of infections since the end of June. At that time there were 300, at the end of July 600, in August 1200, and in September 2400. According to the Chancellor's calculation, there would have been 4800 new infections per day at the end of October, 9600 in November and 19 in December.200.

In fact, however, there are already now, that is, at the end of October, just under 11.000 New infections within 24 hours. The number is more than twice as high as Merkel had amed. The reason is that the doubling period has been shortened considerably. Thus, the spread of the virus has accelerated.

What happens if the rapid increase continues at the same pace?

It would be a horror vision. The SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach recently calculated that, based on 4500 new infections per day, more than 500 would be infected by Christmas.000 people could be infected within 24 hours.

He amed two conditions: The number of new infections is increasing daily. And: the R-value is 1.3 – that is, 10 infected people infect 13 more. Given the latest infection figures, this estimate would put the number of new infections per day at well over 500 by Christmas.000 increase.

Even the "Welt" journalist Olaf Gersemann sounds the alarm. The seven-day average is now already twice as high as anticipated in Merkel's scenario, he shouts on Twitter. The number of active Corona cases has risen to more than 76.000 increased. The period in which the number doubles is becoming shorter and shorter. It currently stands at eleven days, compared to 51 days at the end of September, he said. "IF this continues, we'll be at 150 by early November.000 active cases," said Gersemann.

Scientists also warn of a significant increase. The Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig expects the 1. November with 25.000 new infections and for the 7. November already at 40.000 new infections. The R-value is estimated by the center at 1.79. This means that 100 infected people infect 179 others.

"However, since our forecast is based on the RKI As the number depends on daily reported data and is therefore subject to weekday fluctuations, this figure very likely overestimates the expected development," the Braunschweig Institute told our editorial team. In addition, possible changes in the behavior of the population have not been taken into account.

World Medical Association President Frank Ulrich Montgomery believes a new lockdown is necessary if the number of new infections rises to 20.000 a day rises. Then the situation gets out of control, he told the "Rheinische Post". Montgomery considers local lockdowns like the one now in Berchtesgaden to be necessary even now. "In the case of local outbreaks, we have to react consistently," he said.

 

How are other European countries responding to the spread of the virus?

Spain with more than one million Corona infections, France shortly before this threshold, Italy with new highs: The second Corona wave in Europe is taking on increasingly worrying proportions. Many countries are again increasingly sealing themselves off from the virus. Ireland and Czech Republic Already largely returned to the nationwide lockdown of the first wave.

At the top is the Czech Republic, which has the steepest curve. In the country with 10.7 million inhabitants, almost 15 new infections have occurred in the past 24 hours.000 people newly infected. Measured against the total population, this is number one in Europe. Since Thursday morning almost all stores (except grocery stores, drugstores and pharmacies) must close.

In addition, strict Output restrictions: Contacts with other people must be limited to "absolutely necessary time". Exceptions apply to commuting to work, necessary shopping, doctor and family visits. The "strongest caliber" was used, says Interior Minister Jan Hamacek.

Ireland also pulls the emergency brake. Starting Thursday, for six weeks, the highest level of Corona-Action level in force. If you can, you have to wear clothes until 1. December working from home. Only essential stores like supermarkets are still allowed to open. Meetings with other households at home or even in the home garden are prohibited.

Italy is also tightening the measures. In Lombardy, nightly curfews from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. are in effect. The Lazio region, which includes the capital city of Rome heard, met this regulation. Campania relies on the same constraints.

In Paris and eight other metropolitan areas France's this also applies. In Bulgaria is in view of strongly rising Corona numbers the wearing of protective masks also compulsory outdoors again. From today, Friday, a complete lockdown applies in the British part of Wales. Austria introduces a limit of six people for private gatherings indoors and twelve outdoors.

Which country is having success in the fight against Corona??

Israel has succeeded in drastically curbing the number of new infections through tough measures. At the beginning of September, the country of about nine million inhabitants had still registered more than 9000 new infections per day. A hard lockdown – the second one – brought the number down to around 1500: daycare centers, schools and universities were closed, restaurants shut down.

Now, however, discussions are already beginning about gradual Relaxations. Cafes and stores have reopened, as have daycare centers. A major source of risk remains private celebrations such as weddings and birthdays.

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